Davis Wilson:

Tonight (8/26): The Next "Nvidia Moment"

Tonight, Nvidia reports earnings. Wall Street expects the company to report quarterly results of $92.2 billion in revenue and $2.09 in earnings per share. That's up from $46.7 billion and $1.05 last year, respectively.

But I'll be paying even closer attention to the guidance. Since the AI buildout began, Nvidia has consistently raised expectations, forcing analysts to increase earnings estimates quarter after quarter. If management raises guidance again tonight, the current $13.04 earnings estimate will move even higher. That means if the stock stays around $200, Nvidia gets even cheaper.

At some point, I believe investors will stop valuing Nvidia at 16x forward earnings and start assigning it a premium multiple that better reflects its growth. A move from 16x to 20x forward earnings would imply a stock price of $260 based on today's estimates. A move to 25x implies a stock price of $326.

These multiples don't strike me as aggressive for a company with Nvidia's growth and dominance. That's why I believe another "Nvidia Moment" is coming.

The first Nvidia Moment happened because Wall Street underestimated the AI buildout. The next Nvidia Moment will happen because Wall Street finally realizes it has been underestimating Nvidia itself. Maybe that realization begins tonight.

If not, it's only a matter of time.

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Chris Campbell:

Humanoid Games: Where's Elon?

Beijing's Humanoid Games, aka the "robot Olympics", are back for their second go and everything is bigger. Events went from 26 to 51, teams from 280 to 666, and 2,056 robots registered.

Two thousand machines running, fighting, playing football, in front of a paying crowd. It was the best marketing a government ever bought, and 641 of 666 teams were Chinese. In one weekend a large chunk of the planet decided China leads the frontier. Maybe that's wrong. But perception moves capital. Unitree IPO'd in Shanghai this week and went vertical.

Sixteen countries sent machines to Beijing. But the most famous humanoid on Earth – Optimus – stayed home. It always does.

But in the U.S., the press is starting to fixate on one story: Tesla marrying SpaceX. A merger. Dan Ives just put the odds at above 80%. And however big you're thinking this could be… it's bigger. Rockets, cars, batteries, chips, AI, and a humanoid. One roof. Nobody has ever owned that. And nobody else probably ever will.

So, China may've won the games… but Elon's buying the track, the shoes, and the runner. Those who pay attention now are positioned before the repricing.

Those who wait? They are the repricing.

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Ray Blanco:

OpenAI Loses a Top Data Center Exec As Stream of High-Profile Departures Continues

OpenAI has lost yet another executive, and the timing of this one stands out in particular given this individual oversaw the execution of the company's data center strategy.

Chris Malone, OpenAI's former head of data centers, left the company last week, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Malone, who spent nearly five years at Meta and more than a decade at Google before that, joined OpenAI in March of last year, making his tenure relatively short.

Malone joined the company not long after the launch of the Stargate Project, a $500 million data center initiative championed by the Trump administration that has sought to develop data centers in the U.S. OpenAI, along with Oracle, Nvidia, SoftBank, and Microsoft, is considered a key partner in the effort.

Why is Malone leaving? It isn't entirely clear. With the AI infrastructure buildout frenzy in full swing across the industry, data center strategy has become one of the most closely watched roles at any AI lab, which makes turnover in that seat especially surprising.

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