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Nvidia's $500B Faustian Bargain

Posted August 13, 2026

Today's Tech FWD

By Today's Tech FWD

Nvidia's $500B Faustian Bargain

Ray Blanco:

Nvidia's New $500B Plan Is Risky but Brilliant, Especially for Aging GPUs

Nvidia announced this week that Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR were willing to commit up to $500 billion to build AI data centers. That eye-popping figure got a lot of attention, but the bigger story is Nvidia's effort to create a secondary market for aging GPUs.

To convince those big-name financial companies, Nvidia promised that if its GPUs used as collateral in these deals don't retain their value as expected, the company will cover up to 25% of the difference. So, if a data center owner defaults on a loan and the lender must liquidate, but the chips can't command the price the books say they should, Nvidia will chip in.

Many have now commented on how unusual, smart, and dangerous this plan is. It is all of those things. The bond markets got so spooked that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang took to X and business TV to better explain how Nvidia's risk would be limited.

The dangerous part for Nvidia is that this creates something financiers call "wrong way" risk. That is, Nvidia's obligations will grow as demand weakens. Should that happen, its revenues will likely be squeezed as well.

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Chris Campbell:

The Golden Dome Tollbooth

GPS is the most important utility nobody thinks about – and the most fragile. Jamming incidents and a changing magnetic field threaten the GPS maps used inside every smartphone, ship, and airliner on Earth.

Now the Pentagon is staking its biggest bet in a generation – the Golden Dome missile shield – on that same fragile signal. Washington needs a backup.

Enter space company Rocket Lab (RKLB), which is buying satellite communications company Iridium in an $8 billion deal expected to close in mid-2027. Buried inside the deal is something called STL ("Satellite Time and Location").

STL broadcasts a timing and positioning signal from all 66 of Iridium's satellites. It's 1,000 times stronger than GPS. It's encrypted, works indoors, and works when GPS goes dark. FAA data centers run their timing on STL. Roughly 500 partner companies build it into their products.

Here's the kicker. Congress passed a law in 2018 requiring a national backup to GPS. Little has been built yet. And the real catalyst: Golden Dome. Rocket Lab is already inside the program, building 18 missile-tracking satellites under an $805 million contract.

Does this mean it's time to back up the truck on RKLB?

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Davis Wilson:

Quantum Stocks, Explained

Don't let yesterday's 28% rally fool you. In case you missed it, Quantinuum (QNT) shares surged yesterday after the company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $28 million-$32 million, above Wall Street's expectation of $26.5 million.

When investors see $28 million-$32 million in annual revenue, it's easy to assume businesses are rapidly adopting quantum computing. But that's not what's happening. Much of today's revenue comes from early adopters, research institutions, and organizations that want to stay up to date on new technologies.

These organizations aren't replacing data centers with quantum computers. They're running experiments. Testing algorithms. Learning how the technology works. Preparing for a future when quantum becomes commercially viable.

The difference between a few million dollars in revenue next year isn't going to determine who wins the quantum race. What matters is whether the technology continues to mature.

Can these companies reduce error rates? Can they make quantum systems more reliable? Can they build machines that businesses actually want to use every day? These are the milestones I'll be watching. Revenue will follow eventually.

But this is why I don't feel any urgency to chase yesterday's 28% rally. I remain bullish on quantum computing. I also expect years of excitement, years of disappointment, and plenty of opportunities to buy these stocks at more attractive prices.

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